By: Bob Tanenbaum
I’m starting to breathe easily again. At last, blood is flowing to my brain. The fog is lifting. In other words, baseball’s almost here.
I die every November and am resurrected on or around the eve of Opening Day. Fifteen box scores to digest almost every day. Now that’s living. How much do I love baseball?
Well, my son and I have been to every major league park and one in Italy. I own 50+ baseball ties. I have a piece of the Shea Stadium wall in my garage. I have a mascot bobble head doll for each team and use them to keep up-to-date standings throughout the season.
Also, I know everything you need to know for the upcoming season and I’m willing to share.
I’ve grouped the teams in 5 tiers – starting with the most likely to be playing into early November (and, for context, compared them to the contenders for November’s other major contest). Group 1:
The Front Runners (AKA the Clinton/Trump Division) The Chicago Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908 (some of you may remember it; if not read “Crazy ‘08” by Cait Murphy) but Vegas thinks this is their year. Chicago has wisely added quality veterans (OF Jason Heyward, 2B Ben Zobrist, SP John Lackey and P Adam Warren) to his collection of young homegrown superstars.
Yikes!
The Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t go on their usual spending spree even after losing ace pitcher Zach Grienke to Arizona. Sure, they bought Scott Kazmir as a rotation replacement and re-upped Howie Kendrick at $20M for two years. Why not spend more? LA has three can’t-miss rookies (SS Corey Seager, 2B Jose Peraza and SP Julio Urias, 19, who has a left eye that’s partially shut and a left arm that shuts down batters.) Double Yikes!!
The New York Mets make this group thanks to a starting rotation that carried the team to the World Series last fall and now has rookie Stephen Matz for a full season and will welcome back ace-quality starter Zach Wheeler in midseason. Re-signing September hero Yoenis Cespedes was a must. The Cuban refugee outfielder owns a collection of outlandishly expensive cars that you should watch for on 1-95 since he keeps some of them at his Bocaire CC mansion in Boca. One Yikes.
The Mets blew past the Washington Nationals in the stretch but the Nats will rebound with baseball’s best player Bryce Harper carrying the team despite the loss of quality starters, Jordan Zimmerman and Doug Fister. Management wised up and dumped dunderhead manager Matt Williams and hired a real skipper in Dusty Baker. The move is worth 5-10 wins.
The reigning-champion Kansas City Royals are too solid and complete a franchise to underrate. Their key move was re-signing OF Alex Gordon. They have a knack at rehabbing pitchers and will try again with SP Ian Kennedy and RP Joachim Soria. One Yikes plus.
Last, and least of this group, is the New York Yankees. While swearing off on big-time contracts, they couldn’t resist adding a third closer – legally challenged (domestic violence) 100 MPH thrower Aroldis Chapman — to their overcrowded bullpen and almost All-Star quality infielder Starlin Castro to the lineup. The key could be a rookie outfielder named Aaron Judge. He’s about 6-foot-7 and drawing comparisons to Dave Winfield. If that happens and A-Rod continues to cheat without getting caught, give ‘em a half-Yikes.
Group 2:
The Secondary Contenders (AKA The Sanders/Cruz/Rubio Division)
The Toronto Blue Jays because they are the best-hitting team in baseball.
The St. Louis Cardinals because they always rebuild into a better team with an amazing farm system and clever trades — this time former Padre 2B Jedd Gyorko.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been knocking on the door for a half-decade now in the NL Central and now they’ll have two doors to blow down: Cubs and Cards. But don’t say it can’t happen. Phenom rookie starter Tyler Glasnow could be the catalyst.
Count the San Francisco Giants in this group, if only because of history. The Giants have won it all in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Get the pattern? Injuries have blown apart a solid rotation so they brought in starters Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to return to glory.
No person has had a greater impact on the game over the past 25 years than Tony LaRussa. The former manager now pulls strings as the Chief Baseball Officer of the Arizona Diamondbacks. LaRussa pushed the mostly homegrown Snakes to sign the winter’s No.1 free agent SP Zack Greinke from LA. They’d be a favorite for the NL West crown if not for LA and SF.
Based on a strong starting rotation you’ve heard little about (2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) the Cleveland Indians will be this season’s dark horses du jour.
Group 3
“So You’re Saying There’s A Chance?” (AKA the Carson/Kasich Division)
Last place; last place; World Series Champions; last place. That’s what the Boston Red Sox have accomplished the last four years. Based on offseason moves that equal or surpass the Cubs, Beantown could be rocking again. Arriving is ace starter David Price and baseball’s most consistent closer Craig Kimbrel. If offensive and defensive inconsistencies are solved, we may have to give them a Yikes!
The Detroit Tigers have a solid offensive nucleus and have added SP Jordan Zimmermann and OF Justin Upton.
The surprising Minnesota Twins missed the playoffs by only three games last year. They could make up the difference if rookies OF Bryon Buxton and SP Jose Berrios live up to expectations.
The Houston Astros, last season’s division champs, are loaded with young talent, suspect starters and a possible black hole at first base.
The annually underachieving Los Angeles Angels surprised by not spending big on free agents but brought in Andrelton Simmons, a defensive genius at shortstop, to bring cohesion to a star-dotted lineup that’s lost its way. The Texas Rangers could be the surprise of the bunch based on rookies 3B Joey Gallo and OF Nomar Mazara.
Group 4:
Never Taken Seriously (AKA the Jeb/Christie/Fiorina/Huckabee Division)
This group of teams has little chance at a playoff spot, but they might have hope for relevance. Not the Chicago White Sox despite adding slugger Todd Frazier. Not the Miami Marlins despite the league’s No.1 slugger, Giancarlo Stanton, and arguably No.1 young starter, Jose Fernandez; not the Baltimore Orioles despite re-signing stars 1B Chris Davis, C Matt Weiters and RP Darren O’Day. Not the Seattle Mariners despite pitching ace “King” Felix Hernandez; not the Tampa Bay Rays, who have sold or traded almost all their young stars; not the San Diego Padres, who spent a fortune last season and are left with a manager and players we’ve never heard of.
Group 5:
Why even show up? (AKA the Pataki/Chaffee/Jindal/O’Malley Division)
These teams are worse than the Padres. They have no shot at a .500 season. If you root for them, you can starting waiting for next year now. Philadelphia Phillies; Atlanta Braves, Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds.
Final Predictions:
So what will happen? I want what I wanted last year. Blue Jays vs. Mets in the World Series. Best hitting vs. best pitching with lots of errors when the ball’s in play and not blasted into the seats. Mets in seven.
